（成长性分析报告分为两部分，第一部分为 DCF 内在价值估算 查看介绍，第二部分为成长性分析 查看介绍）
过去五年(2013-2018)EPS平均增长率为：11.50%。
过去三年(2015-2018)EPS平均增长率为：22.75%。
过去一年股价最高为：1211.00 元，市场预期EPS增长率为
24.61%。
过去一年股价最低为：516.35 元，市场预期EPS增长率为
11.69%。
目前股价为1211.00 元，市场预期EPS增长率为
24.61%。
若市场预期未来10年成长率为：30.00%，则合理股价为：1725.4
若市场预期未来10年成长率为：27.50%，则合理股价为：1464.46
若市场预期未来10年成长率为：25.00%，则合理股价为：1242.1
若市场预期未来10年成长率为：22.50%，则合理股价为：1053.0
若市场预期未来10年成长率为：20.00%，则合理股价为：892.48
| 指标 趋势 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
营收增长率
0.021089560975541,0.0343845458849424,0.189916880776374,0.498059201588949,0.264884534157674,0.182385584272379
|
2.1% | 3.4% | 19.0% | 49.8% | 26.5% | 18.2% |
|
营业利润增长率
0.0142912445898618,0.00253444237271196,0.0950689999833888,0.604739513677271,0.318515093688045,0.241176819751333
|
1.4% | 0.3% | 9.5% | 60.5% | 31.9% | 24.1% |
|
净利率
0.515278657639555,0.503833630080321,0.461390444355353,0.498239244472898,0.513718047683729,0.528092547663234
|
51.5% | 50.4% | 46.1% | 49.8% | 51.4% | 52.8% |
|
营业利润率
0.700038743333469,0.678483600687107,0.624401897403783,0.668867022155143,0.697226695849376,0.713170992784452
|
70.0% | 67.8% | 62.4% | 66.9% | 69.7% | 71.3% |
|
总资产周转率
0.520475183948297,0.429238224736591,0.39011212493349,0.470362499061849,0.500167593249403,0.54047520113991
|
0.52 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.54 |
|
权益乘数
1.19,1.22,1.36,1.41,1.34,1.33
|
1.19 | 1.22 | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.33 |
|
ROA
0.268189754119579,0.216264652938269,0.179994006671474,0.23435305616096,0.256945119518753,0.285420925918774
|
26.8% | 21.6% | 18.0% | 23.4% | 25.7% | 28.5% |
|
存货周转天数
2092.96284090941,2372.30404728313,2067.67520493439,1311.19177475236,1274.81351023688,1253.96462244326
|
2093.0 | 2372.3 | 2067.7 | 1311.2 | 1274.8 | 1254.0 |
|
应收款项周转天数
12.4223050314314,58.2896054420249,44.128104623772,6.39285440251845,4.42488917368955,3.2044722581333
|
12.4 | 58.3 | 44.1 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
|
存货
0.227442606056041,0.208725278903525,0.182603587348506,0.163861988151527,0.147059367240777,0.145432175192114
|
22.7% | 20.9% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 14.5% |
|
应收款项
0.0281168328977986,0.099409278075422,0.0072398327779043,0.00907588573103877,0.00352675281441436,0.00429782484061622
|
2.8% | 9.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
|
速动比率
2.81911921506327,2.26980405312953,1.83387200259881,2.31580612371234,2.66228200490984,2.5673655699062
|
281.9% | 227.0% | 183.4% | 231.6% | 266.2% | 256.7% |
|
现金与约当现金
0.42066777246418,0.426420925387812,0.591979771079623,0.652765720387001,0.70113933621174,0.69983470126534
|
42.1% | 42.6% | 59.2% | 65.3% | 70.1% | 70.0% |
|
现金再投资比率
0.135351618028616,0.178511197597229,0.383337646986816,0.137947945666147,0.212456030122106,0.211269885261434
|
13.5% | 17.9% | 38.3% | 13.8% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
|
现金流量允当比率
1.11260805790537,1.19682525800779,1.5664916597529,1.71785460848412,2.07628904128359,
|
111.3% | 119.7% | 156.6% | 171.8% | 207.6% | --% |
|
EPS
12.22,12.34,13.31,21.56,28.02,31.35
|
12.22 | 12.34 | 13.31 | 21.56 | 28.02 | 31.35 |
|
每股自由现金流
7.181674022677798035,12.2392107838431177,29.001859030584196215,16.73941706607032746,31.66578080334163935,18.279070530031178211
|
7.18 | 12.24 | 29.0 | 16.74 | 31.67 | 18.28 |
| 营业活动现金流量 | 1.26 百亿 | 1.74 百亿 | 3.75 百亿 | 2.22 百亿 | 4.14 百亿 | 4.77 百亿 |
| 投资活动现金流量 | -45.8 亿 | -20.49 亿 | -11.03 亿 | -11.21 亿 | -16.29 亿 | -20.26 亿 |
| 融资活动现金流量 | -50.41 亿 | -55.88 亿 | -83.35 亿 | -88.99 亿 | -1.64 百亿 | -2.16 百亿 |
| 指标 | 五年总体 上升/好转 |
五年连续 上升/好转 |
|---|---|---|
| 净利率上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 营业利润率上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 总资产周转率上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 权益乘数下降 | 否 | 否 |
| ROA上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 存货周转天数下降 | 否 | |
| 应收款项周转天数下降 | 否 | |
| 存货下降 | ||
| 应收款项下降 | 否 | |
| 速动比率上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 现金与约当现金上升 | ||
| EPS上升 | ||
| 每股自由现金流上升 | 否 |
| 指标 | 五年总体 下降/变差 |
五年连续 下降/变差 |
|---|---|---|
| 净利率下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 营业利润率下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 总资产周转率下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 权益乘数上升 | 否 | 否 |
| ROA下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 存货周转天数上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 应收款项周转天数上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 存货上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 应收款项上升 | 否 | 否 |
| 速动比率下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 现金与约当现金下降 | 否 | 否 |
| EPS下降 | 否 | 否 |
| 每股自由现金流下降 | 否 | 否 |