贵州茅台(600519)成长性分析报告

(成长性分析报告分为两部分,第一部分为 DCF 内在价值估算 查看介绍,第二部分为成长性分析 查看介绍

第一部分、贵州茅台DCF内在价值估算

过去五年(2014-2019)EPS平均增长率为:17.89%
过去三年(2016-2019)EPS平均增长率为:25.29%

过去一年股价最高为:1781.99 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 29.12%。
过去一年股价最低为:931.55 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 19.29%。
目前股价为1781.99 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 29.12%。

若市场预期未来10年成长率为:35.00%,则合理股价为:2612.13
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:32.50%,则合理股价为:2221.46
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:30.00%,则合理股价为:1887.2
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:27.50%,则合理股价为:1601.8
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:25.00%,则合理股价为:1358.59

1358.59 25.00%
1601.8 27.50%
1887.2 30.00%
2221.46 32.50%
2612.13 35.00%

第二部分、贵州茅台成长性分析

成长性相关指标趋势与数据

指标 趋势 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 近12个月
营收增长率
0.0343845458849424,0.189916880776374,0.498059201588949,0.264884534157674,0.160115176901277,0.127582308092638
3.4% 19.0% 49.8% 26.5% 16.0% 12.8%
营业利润增长率
0.00253444237271196,0.0950689999833888,0.604739513677271,0.318515093688045,0.149942610328108,0.160312747859874
0.3% 9.5% 60.5% 31.9% 15.0% 16.0%
净利率
0.503833630080321,0.461390444355353,0.498239244472898,0.513718047683729,0.514692968815608,0.520655749912314
50.4% 46.1% 49.8% 51.4% 51.5% 52.1%
营业利润率
0.678483600687107,0.624401897403783,0.668867022155143,0.697226695849376,0.69111300548368,0.698551007150855
67.8% 62.4% 66.9% 69.7% 69.1% 69.9%
总资产周转率
0.429238224736591,0.39011212493349,0.470362499061849,0.500167593249403,0.498292810866213,0.516472218895727
0.43 0.39 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.52
权益乘数
1.22,1.36,1.41,1.34,1.29,1.17
1.22 1.36 1.41 1.34 1.29 1.17
ROA
0.216264652938269,0.179994006671474,0.23435305616096,0.256945119518753,0.256467806164205,0.268904230438031
21.6% 18.0% 23.4% 25.7% 25.6% 26.9%
存货周转天数
2372.30404728313,2067.67520493439,1311.19177475236,1274.81351023688,1198.45220232848,1160.11772923335
2372.3 2067.7 1311.2 1274.8 1198.5 1160.1
应收款项周转天数
58.2896054420249,44.128104623772,6.39285440251845,4.42488917368955,4.32964955565295,3.85807395567266
58.3 44.1 6.4 4.4 4.3 3.9
存货
0.208725278903525,0.182603587348506,0.163861988151527,0.147059367240777,0.138136981750101,0.13914429328982
20.9% 18.3% 16.4% 14.7% 13.8% 13.9%
应收款项
0.099409278075422,0.0072398327779043,0.00907588573103877,0.00352675281441436,0.00799268840736128,0.00740314195527781
9.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7%
速动比率
2.26980405312953,1.83387200259881,2.31580612371234,2.66228200490984,0.358083146517771,0.814456505165186
227.0% 183.4% 231.6% 266.2% 35.8% 81.4%
现金与约当现金
0.426420925387812,0.591979771079623,0.652765720387001,0.70113933621174,0.0723975388320094,0.108371655116415
42.6% 59.2% 65.3% 70.1% 7.2% 10.8%
现金再投资比率
0.178511197597229,0.383337646986816,0.137947945666147,0.212456030122106,0.176776144451835,0.165306463877097
17.9% 38.3% 13.8% 21.2% 17.7% 16.5%
现金流量允当比率
1.19682525800779,1.5664916597529,1.71785460848412,2.07628904128359,2.16472486375729,2.64496623850932
119.7% 156.6% 171.8% 207.6% 216.5% 264.5%
EPS
12.34,13.31,21.56,28.02,32.8,34.29
12.34 13.31 21.56 28.02 32.80 34.29
每股自由现金流
12.2392107838431177,29.001859030584196215,16.73941706607032746,31.66578080334163935,33.483379744161309628,1.503463059519766712
12.24 29.0 16.74 31.67 33.48 1.5
营业活动现金流量 1.74 百亿 3.75 百亿 2.22 百亿 4.14 百亿 4.52 百亿 4.63 百亿
投资活动现金流量 -20.49 亿 -11.03 亿 -11.21 亿 -16.29 亿 -31.66 亿 -29.68 亿
融资活动现金流量 -55.88 亿 -83.35 亿 -88.99 亿 -1.64 百亿 -1.93 百亿 -4.51 亿

成长性相关指标上升/好转对比

仅对比2015-2019年报数据

指标 五年总体
上升/好转
五年连续
上升/好转
营收增长率上升
净利率上升
营业利润率上升
总资产周转率上升
权益乘数下降
ROA上升
存货周转天数下降
应收款项周转天数下降
存货下降
应收款项下降
速动比率上升
现金与约当现金上升
EPS上升
每股自由现金流上升

成长性相关指标下降/变差对比

仅对比2015-2019年报数据

指标 五年总体
下降/变差
五年连续
下降/变差
营收增长率下降
净利率下降
营业利润率下降
总资产周转率下降
权益乘数上升
ROA下降
存货周转天数上升
应收款项周转天数上升
存货上升
应收款项上升
速动比率下降
现金与约当现金下降
EPS下降
每股自由现金流下降