贵州茅台(600519)成长性分析报告

(成长性分析报告分为两部分,第一部分为 DCF 内在价值估算 查看介绍,第二部分为成长性分析 查看介绍

第一部分、贵州茅台DCF内在价值估算

过去五年(2013-2018)EPS平均增长率为:11.50%
过去三年(2015-2018)EPS平均增长率为:22.75%

过去一年股价最高为:1233.75 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 24.32%。
过去一年股价最低为:551.91 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 12.13%。
目前股价为1137.00 元,市场预期EPS增长率为 23.08%。

若市场预期未来10年成长率为:30.00%,则合理股价为:1792.54
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:27.50%,则合理股价为:1521.45
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:25.00%,则合理股价为:1290.44
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:22.50%,则合理股价为:1093.98
若市场预期未来10年成长率为:20.00%,则合理股价为:927.21

927.21 20.00%
1093.98 22.50%
1290.44 25.00%
1521.45 27.50%
1792.54 30.00%

第二部分、贵州茅台成长性分析

成长性相关指标趋势与数据

指标 趋势 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 近12个月
营收增长率
0.021089560975541,0.0343845458849424,0.189916880776374,0.498059201588949,0.264884534157674,0.166399506125626
2.1% 3.4% 19.0% 49.8% 26.5% 16.6%
营业利润增长率
0.0142912445898618,0.00253444237271196,0.0950689999833888,0.604739513677271,0.318515093688045,0.208560884194519
1.4% 0.3% 9.5% 60.5% 31.9% 20.9%
净利率
0.515278657639555,0.503833630080321,0.461390444355353,0.498239244472898,0.513718047683729,0.530421223124006
51.5% 50.4% 46.1% 49.8% 51.4% 53.0%
营业利润率
0.700038743333469,0.678483600687107,0.624401897403783,0.668867022155143,0.697226695849376,0.714393862414349
70.0% 67.8% 62.4% 66.9% 69.7% 71.4%
总资产周转率
0.520475183948297,0.429238224736591,0.39011212493349,0.470362499061849,0.500167593249403,0.531691123565652
0.52 0.43 0.39 0.47 0.50 0.53
权益乘数
1.19,1.22,1.36,1.41,1.34,1.28
1.19 1.22 1.36 1.41 1.34 1.28
ROA
0.268189754119579,0.216264652938269,0.179994006671474,0.23435305616096,0.256945119518753,0.28202025608587
26.8% 21.6% 18.0% 23.4% 25.7% 28.2%
存货周转天数
2092.96284090941,2372.30404728313,2067.67520493439,1311.19177475236,1274.81351023688,1177.25322691869
2093.0 2372.3 2067.7 1311.2 1274.8 1177.3
应收款项周转天数
12.4223050314314,58.2896054420249,44.128104623772,6.39285440251845,4.42488917368955,3.27900746120728
12.4 58.3 44.1 6.4 4.4 3.3
存货
0.227442606056041,0.208725278903525,0.182603587348506,0.163861988151527,0.147059367240777,0.146142263569133
22.7% 20.9% 18.3% 16.4% 14.7% 14.6%
应收款项
0.0281168328977986,0.099409278075422,0.0072398327779043,0.00907588573103877,0.00352675281441436,0.00528254287996634
2.8% 9.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5%
速动比率
2.81911921506327,2.26980405312953,1.83387200259881,2.31580612371234,2.66228200490984,3.58806567773954
281.9% 227.0% 183.4% 231.6% 266.2% 358.8%
现金与约当现金
0.42066777246418,0.426420925387812,0.591979771079623,0.652765720387001,0.70113933621174,0.693500943686968
42.1% 42.6% 59.2% 65.3% 70.1% 69.4%
现金再投资比率
0.135351618028616,0.178511197597229,0.383337646986816,0.137947945666147,0.212456030122106,0.15551576466186
13.5% 17.9% 38.3% 13.8% 21.2% 15.6%
现金流量允当比率
1.11260805790537,1.19682525800779,1.5664916597529,1.71785460848412,2.07628904128359,2.17494480862539
111.3% 119.7% 156.6% 171.8% 207.6% 217.5%
EPS
12.22,12.34,13.31,21.56,28.02,32.57
12.22 12.34 13.31 21.56 28.02 32.57
每股自由现金流
7.181674022677798035,12.2392107838431177,29.001859030584196215,16.73941706607032746,31.66578080334163935,20.130080303372605811
7.18 12.24 29.0 16.74 31.67 20.13
营业活动现金流量 1.26 百亿 1.74 百亿 3.75 百亿 2.22 百亿 4.14 百亿 4.05 百亿
投资活动现金流量 -45.8 亿 -20.49 亿 -11.03 亿 -11.21 亿 -16.29 亿 -26.46 亿
融资活动现金流量 -50.41 亿 -55.88 亿 -83.35 亿 -88.99 亿 -1.64 百亿 -1.93 百亿

成长性相关指标上升/好转对比

仅对比2014-2018年报数据

指标 五年总体
上升/好转
五年连续
上升/好转
营收增长率上升
净利率上升
营业利润率上升
总资产周转率上升
权益乘数下降
ROA上升
存货周转天数下降
应收款项周转天数下降
存货下降
应收款项下降
速动比率上升
现金与约当现金上升
EPS上升
每股自由现金流上升

成长性相关指标下降/变差对比

仅对比2014-2018年报数据

指标 五年总体
下降/变差
五年连续
下降/变差
营收增长率下降
净利率下降
营业利润率下降
总资产周转率下降
权益乘数上升
ROA下降
存货周转天数上升
应收款项周转天数上升
存货上升
应收款项上升
速动比率下降
现金与约当现金下降
EPS下降
每股自由现金流下降